The Great Indian Reverse Migration-Thoughts and Opinion

7 min readJun 5, 2020

We are seeing one of the biggest reverse migrations in India in decades. Apart from the times of calamity, only quite a few headed back to their hometowns even after facing brute city treatment and extreme poverty.

As the book ‘Good Economics for Hard Times’ mention, most of the times, if a migrant fails to increase his standard of living and faces defeat in the town he has migrated to, a big barrier to reverse migration is the human factor of determination and an eagerness to look good in one’s own eyes, which is one of the many reasons a migrant stays in the city and persistently tries to succeed.

In one of his recent articles, professor and academician Ajay Dandekar puts it correctly-”Given the diverse realities of expanding of urban settlements in which lives of migrants are embedded, it is important to note that the coping strategy of the migrants constantly vacillates between the inhuman work conditions of urban and peri-urban India on the one hand and the impoverished and destitute landscape of the rural on the other.”

According to Dandekar, who has spent years in the field researching on rural India, close to 14 Crore people or 140 Million people are reverse migrating- some successfully and some unfortunately not being able to make it to their eventual destinations. That’s almost about 11% of India’s population heading back to their destitute rural hometowns and family members. While the number is an estimation, it is our best derivation as of now considering the lack of necessary data.

Considering the contagiousness of the virus, it’s almost certain that we will be seeing higher cases from the rural India. The immediate impact would be an increased pressure on the rural healthcare infrastructure already running at max capacity. It is almost any day highly alerting how the rural India lacks the basic healthcare equipment and infrastructure in a pandemic-less scenario too.

For example, if we were to look at a State such as UP or Bihar, where the maximum number of migrant workers hail from, about 10% of the Service Centres(the lowest tier in the Indian healthcare system) do not even have ANMs(Auxiliary Nurse Midwives) and people need to travel up to 10km to find the nearest medical facility. At the PHC (Primary Healthcare centers) level, about 8% do not have clinical staff, 39% do not have lab technicians and 18% of them do not even have a pharmacist. To add to this, in some States, 50% of District Hospitals do not have adequate ICU beds, specialists or pollution control board clearances. The shortage of ambulances is another big challenge at this level.[1]

But we will consider two scenarios here, first, we too like China, are finally able to one day take control over the number of cases and it dips slowly; finally coming to a daily number which is controllable and contract traceable. In this first scenario, we have to live with the virus as the new norm and the virus remains with us till we find a vaccine/preventive medicine.

The second scenario is more of an ideal situation which we won’t discuss now and in this article. The second scenario is where everything goes back to normal, we find a vaccine quickly and this all comes to an end. Though, there are multiple contenders for this vaccine and while we all wish it happens quickly, we will leave the ideal scenario for now.

Talking further on the first case, the reverse migration might be here to stay. The vacated Dharavi(Asia’s most populated slum) slum houses among other encroachments might never be filled back with the same intensity. While we know, more than roughly 85%–90% of India’s working population is in the informal sector which constitutes majority of the migrant workers, a lot of which might have been ‘severely’ to ‘very severely’ impacted from the current state of affairs.[2]

While we’re aware of the massive Covid threat this brings, let’s look at some of the other key resultants of this shift:

Increase in rural population and limited jobs might see people struggling with limited rural infrastructure and resources
De-congestion of metros especially Delhi and Mumbai might lead to better job opportunities, working conditions and improved wages due to a less number of people fighting for the limited opportunities
Micro-financing firms might see an increased business, though the collateral free loans and ease of securing a loan from these firms might decrease owing to the risk of rise in defaults
Better infrastructure chances, availability of living space and less costly housing prices in previously extremely costly housing markets/cities
Drawing these people back to towns have to be thought through. If given a chance to improve the conditions of metros, a better option might be to create job opportunities in and near rural India.
A big challenge for these workers can be that the skills acquired in the urban areas such as ship building, construction work, working at a small business among others might not be useful at their eventual place of return. Constructions jobs will be way less in rural areas and the unskilled workers might not have relevant skills to be hired. An up-skill drive might be useful in the long term.
In Abhijit and Esther’s book ‘Good Economics for Hard Times’, they talk about how, most of the migration happens when migrants are forced out of their native places due to extreme circumstances. Most migrants prefer to stay at their home even after facing poverty and poor standard of living. Though, in this case we’re talking about reverse migration, a large part of the forced out migrants, might not want to come back because of the dark history this has left behind. Even after our attempts to draw them back, a large portion of these will stay behind and never go back.
As a large population heads back to their hometowns, migrants might be more comfortable working at a nearby city from their hometown than in a far away different city altogether. This gives us an opportunity to urbanize other cities just like metros, create and provide job opportunities to the migrants there, while taking off pressure from highly urbanized areas like Mumbai and Delhi.
It also gives us an opportunity to improve infrastructure and existing living conditions in prime metros.
Consumer durables, FMCG are few of the sectors which will see an increased dependence on existing penetration.

The above are only few of the many resulting shifts we might be seeing in the rural-urban dynamics. This shift will bring about a rapid change and consequences with it. Our rural systems will be in stress, overworked and over-utilized. Infrastructure, Healthcare Systems, Education Systems, Housing and Transport will be inadequate to take the influx. This brings an opportunity for the rural and semi-urban focused businesses too.

A 2017 National Accounts Data article points correctly: In Rural construction, in roads and irrigation and real estate will also help increase incomes in India’s villages. Improvement in cold storage will not only help farmers get better prices but also lead to more employment.[3]

The data also points out how that almost half(~48%) of total net value added in the economy comes from the rural sector. As assumed, Agriculture & Allied sector which includes the economic activity of crops, livestock, forestry, fishing and aquaculture contributes to about close to 39% of the total rural economy.[4]

A 2014 study by RBI points out Agriculture Employment Elasticity at 0.04. To put this in perspective, for every 1% growth in employment, the sector will have to grow by 25% . [5]

Creating rural employment will take a lot more than it did previously. A well crafted plan, chiseled with strong micro-financing approach will be critical as well as crucial.

While a lot of companies might be looking to get out of China and explore parts of South East Asia to set up their plants, “What happens if China depreciates its currency. In that case, Chinese products will be cheaper and people will continue to buy their products,” says Abhijit Banerjee.

The concept of self-reliance coined by our PM is one of most critical factors now. It highlights the power of self-reliant India as well as the need of the hour too. Though largely symbolic, it has left us with a deep message of revival of entrepreneurial spirits as well as the rural economy.

Rural Micro SMBs will be seeing lots of growing attention now. The skilled and competent among the migrants will be finding ways to survive and create a mark after a scathing urban send-off. These small business will be employing other capable migrant employees with them. Few of the other opportunities that will be opening up will be from Manufacturing and MNCs looking for opportunities of expansion as well as increased penetration. Very limited additional people will also take up agriculture and aquaculture related activities.

The other sectors too will see an increased demand for jobs in the rural workforce. We might not be ready for an influx of 140 Mn people into our rural lands all at once, but the brighter side shows us an increased opportunity to pull the quality of Indian economy back as the population equilibrium balances itself in the urban and rural space. Continuous plans to revive and focus on rural economy, chalking our rural and urban synergies and looking out for opportunities is the only way out to help India sustain its past growth momentum. Covid has more or less affected every country the same, what will define us is what we choose to do with the dynamics in the short and long term.

The Great Indian Reverse Migration-Thoughts and Opinion

Written by The Passage